Rising sea levels could inundate the US coast by 2050, NASA predicts
Sea levels are likely to be rising faster than previously thought, meaning low-lying coastal cities in the US could flood much more regularly in the coming decades, a NASA study has revealed.
According to the study, which analyzed three decades of satellite observations, by 2050 sea levels along the contiguous US coasts could rise as much as 12 inches (30 centimeters) above the lines of current flotation, the research team. he said in a statement (opens in a new tab). According to the study, published Oct. 6 in the journal, the Gulf Coast and Southeast are expected to be hardest hit, and will likely experience increased storm and tidal flooding in the near future. Earth and Environment Communications (opens in a new tab).
The findings support the “higher-ranking” scenarios presented in February at the multi-agency Technical report on sea level rise (opens in a new tab). The report suggested that “significant sea level rise” could affect U.S. coastlines over the next 30 years, predicting 10 to 14 inches (25 to 35 cm) of rise on average for the East Coast ; 14 to 18 inches (35 to 45 cm) for the Gulf Coast; and 4 to 8 inches (10 to 20 cm) for the West Coast.”
The NASA study built on the methods used in the previous multi-agency report and was led by a team of researchers and scientists based in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (opens in a new tab) in California, which is dedicated to both exploring the deepest recesses of space and using satellites to “advance our understanding” of Earth.
NASA research took satellite altimeter measurements of sea surface height and then correlated them National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (opens in a new tab) (NOAA) tide gauge records dating back more than 100 years. As a result, NASA can confidently state that its satellite readings are not anomalous and are fully supported by findings on the ground.
While the findings of the new study are certainly cause for concern, Jonathan Overpeck (opens in a new tab)an interdisciplinary climate scientist at the University of Michigan who was not involved in the research, suggested that the projections have by no means come out of the blue.
“NASA’s findings seem robust and not surprising. We know sea level rise is accelerating, and we know why,” he told Live Science in an email. “More and more polar ice is melting, and that’s on top of the expansion of the oceans as they warm. It’s clear that sea level rise is going to get worse as we let it. climate change continue.”
This point of view is shared by David Holland (opens in a new tab)a physical climate scientist and professor of maths at New York University who did not participate in the study. “The quality of the satellite data is excellent, so the findings are reliable,” Holland told Live Science in an email. “The study shows that the global ocean is rising, and what’s more, the rise is accelerating. The projected rise for the Gulf Coast of about 1 foot by 2050 is huge. This can make hurricane-related storm surges are even worse than what is currently happening.”
Other factors may also contribute to sea level rise along the US coast. The study indicated that problems associated with sea-level rise could be “amplified by natural variability.” land,” as the effects of El Niño and La Niña in the mid-2030s, with all U.S. coasts poised to encounter “more intense high tide flooding due to an oscillation in moonorbit that occurs every 18.6 years,” according to the statement.
The effects of El Niño (warming of surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near South America that can lead to increased rainfall) and La Niña (cooling of surface ocean waters in the Pacific ) can make accurate sea level prediction challenging, and can distort readings. Ben Hamlington, leader of NASA’s sea level change team, noted that natural events and phenomena will always need to be taken into account, and said that all forecasts will inevitably be refined as satellites collect data over time.
Despite the study’s bleak conclusions, some experts are confident that shocking, high-profile research like this will compel policymakers to focus on addressing the ongoing climate crisis and encourage the public to demand that ‘introduce effective measures.
“It’s impossible to ignore. I believe that [increased flooding] is catalyzing action as many coastal communities are discussing these issues and how they are responding,” he said Robert Nicholls (opens in a new tab), director of the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research in the United Kingdom, who was not involved in the study. “We have the means to address this challenge in terms of mitigation to stabilize globally temperatures and the slow, but not completely stopped, rise in sea level, which will unfortunately continue for centuries due to warming up we’ve already experienced it.”
Ultimately, humanity will have to adapt as climate change alters our planet’s oceans and seas.
“This could involve retreat in some places, raising land in other places and defenses in other places,” Nicholls told Live Science. “There is no one-size-fits-all solution. If we follow this path, the future is manageable. Equally, if governments and society ignore these problems, the future will be a real mess.”
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